Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Japan Quake : a turning point for the Yen negative for JGBs positive for The Japanese equities
Marc Faber was interviewed on the phone by CNBC today 15 March 2011 he spoke about the Japanes Quake its implication on the Yen the JGBs and the Japanese Equities and commodities he also said that the S&P Standard & Poor's 500 is likely to to drop as much as 15 percent and that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will likely to bring QE 2 , QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7 and up to QE 18
Marc Faber :..."... first of all I think that all stock markets and commodity markets were due for a meaningful correction because we have doubled or more than doubled since March 2009 , so any kind of event was likely to trigger a more meaningful correction and I think that this is an event that is most unfortunate but obviously it is a catalyst of a global correction in asset market in particular obviously in Japan , now as an investor of course it's a human tragedy and as an economist you have to say OK we have essentially destruction in Japan we should necessitate very heavy spending reconstruction expenditure that will be somewhat inflationary for the Japanese economy , and somewhat positive for equities and and certainly negative for JGBs , and in my opinion in the long run very negative for the yen , can the yen as a reaction , because everybody says Oh the Japanese were patriots and the yen will strengthen so may be the yen will go up first a little , but I think this is a kind of a turning point for the Yen and that the Yen will weaken that the JGBs will weaken and that equities will go up ...and purely as an economist investor I would say This huge selloff is an investment opportunity in Japanese equities, but if a meltdown occurs then all bets are off,that is the big question "" If a real nuclear meltdown occur then the devastation could be just mind bugling " the above partial transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog and hence it is far from being perfect or accurate use at your own risk...
Marc Faber :..."... first of all I think that all stock markets and commodity markets were due for a meaningful correction because we have doubled or more than doubled since March 2009 , so any kind of event was likely to trigger a more meaningful correction and I think that this is an event that is most unfortunate but obviously it is a catalyst of a global correction in asset market in particular obviously in Japan , now as an investor of course it's a human tragedy and as an economist you have to say OK we have essentially destruction in Japan we should necessitate very heavy spending reconstruction expenditure that will be somewhat inflationary for the Japanese economy , and somewhat positive for equities and and certainly negative for JGBs , and in my opinion in the long run very negative for the yen , can the yen as a reaction , because everybody says Oh the Japanese were patriots and the yen will strengthen so may be the yen will go up first a little , but I think this is a kind of a turning point for the Yen and that the Yen will weaken that the JGBs will weaken and that equities will go up ...and purely as an economist investor I would say This huge selloff is an investment opportunity in Japanese equities, but if a meltdown occurs then all bets are off,that is the big question "" If a real nuclear meltdown occur then the devastation could be just mind bugling " the above partial transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog and hence it is far from being perfect or accurate use at your own risk...
Marc Faber : The S&P 500 may drop 15% Then QE 2 , QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7—whatever
Dr. Doom Marc Faber told CNBC this morning that he expects weakness to persist and the Standard & Poor's 500 to drop as much as 15 percent and then the FED's chairman will do what he does best printing money and purchasing US treasuries , we will have up to QE 18 Marc Faber says ironically : "We may drop 10 to 15 percent. Then QE 2 will come, (then) QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7—whatever you want. The money printer will continue to print, that I'm sure," said the author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. Later in the interview, he added, "Actually I made a mistake. I meant to say QE 18."
Marc Faber : This huge selloff in Japanese equities is an investment opportunity
Marc Faber spoke today to CNBC about the Impact of the Japan Tsunami on the Global Economy among other subjects : "This huge selloff is an investment opportunity in Japanese equities, but if a meltdown occurs then all bets are off," Dr. Marc Faber told CNBC today
Monday, March 14, 2011
Marc Faber : U.S. equities market had a fantastic run in recent years
Marc Faber in a recent interview with Radio Host MacAlavany said :We didn’t have a decent run, we had a fantastic run. The S&P has doubled, and in emerging markets we have price increases that are far better than a doubling of the indices. In general, emerging economy stock markets since 2003 have way outperformed the S&P. So we had unbelievable moves in markets. In the U.S. we only had on two previous occasions a move such as we had in the last 27 months from 666 on the S&P to over 1300, and that was in 1934, coming off a major low when the market had declined by 90% between 1929 and 1932, and then another move into between 1934 and 1937,and that was then followed by renewed extreme weakness in the markets.So stocks have done fantastically well, and I was fortunate to be relatively positive about equities between October 2008 and March 2009.But if someone had asked me, “Do you think the S&P will double?” I would not have expected a doubling.
I would have thought the market would rebound, maybe by 40-50%, but not a doubling.The markets in the world, between March 2009 and today, have done actually much better than anybody had expected. Starting in November 2010, the American market started to weaken, and I think that we have just begun a more significant correction in theU.S., whereby I expect the fact that international investors over-weighted the American economic stock market until recently, and under-weighted the U.S., and now money is flowing back into the U.S. I think emerging stock markets will go down further, but I would probably just stay out of the U.S...."
I would have thought the market would rebound, maybe by 40-50%, but not a doubling.The markets in the world, between March 2009 and today, have done actually much better than anybody had expected. Starting in November 2010, the American market started to weaken, and I think that we have just begun a more significant correction in theU.S., whereby I expect the fact that international investors over-weighted the American economic stock market until recently, and under-weighted the U.S., and now money is flowing back into the U.S. I think emerging stock markets will go down further, but I would probably just stay out of the U.S...."
U.S. would go down less than emerging economies
Marc Faber : ..I'm just saying the U.S. would go down less than emerging economies. .."
in Businessweek
in Businessweek
Sunday, March 13, 2011
If something happens in China, they will print even more than the U.S. prints
Marc Faber : I think that there will be some decoupling, and whenever you look at the markets,different sectors perform differently, but generally speaking, in the same direction. So if someone were to take a very bearish view about emerging stock markets, I do not think he should go into European stocks or U.S. stocks. I take a more balanced view. I think we are in a money-printing environment. If something happens in China, they will print even more than the U.S. prints. If something in happens in Europe, they will also print money. They are going to print money everywhere, and with interest rates, essentially on short-term deposits, being zero, or below zero, inflation-adjusted, in other words, if inflation rates everywhere in the world are higher than the interest rates on short-term deposits, I think, for the investor, the question is really, “How do I invest my money for the long - term?” I think that you cannot make a very bullish case for stocks, but I think you can make a more bullish, or more positive, case for stocks than say, for U.S. government bonds,because the specifics in the U.S. will stay very high, and the quality of the banks will diminish and the interest payments as a percent of tax revenues will go up, and so forth. So whether you believe in, let’s say, an economic recovery and world growth, or if you believe in disaster, in either case you are probably better off in equities than in bonds.In terms of returns, I agree with you, I do not think that the returns will be fantastic, but if you print money it is very difficult to say what the returns will be, because it is not stocks that adjust on the downside, but it is the currency that adjusts on the downside. So in theory, it is possible that the Dow could double if you print money, or it could even go up10 times, depending on how much money you print, and with Mr. Bernanke at the Fed, I think it is quite likely that a lot of money will be printed...."
in a recent interview with McAlvany
in a recent interview with McAlvany
Bill Gross, : US to Keep AAA Credit Rating for Some Time
Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., discusses the outlook for the U.S.'s AAA credit rating. Gross, speaking from Newport Beach, California, with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness," also talks about the 8.9-magnitude earthquake that struck Japan and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing.
March 11 2011 Bloomberg
Pimco's Bill Gross appeared on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness with Margaret Brennan" this morning to discuss the earthquake in Japan and its effect on his global outlook as well as U.S. Treasuries and the Fed's overall progress
March 11 2011 Bloomberg
Pimco's Bill Gross appeared on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness with Margaret Brennan" this morning to discuss the earthquake in Japan and its effect on his global outlook as well as U.S. Treasuries and the Fed's overall progress
Friday, March 11, 2011
Marc Faber : people should have some of their money in gold and silver
Marc Faber : .."... I would say, let’s take a very bearish scenario, assuming there is a collapse in the Chinese economy, which is not necessarily my prediction, but some people say there is a horrendous bubble. I agree, if we define a bubble as artificially low interest rates, and excessive credit growth, then we have a colossal bubble in China. But it may go on for another 2-3 years. But let’s say it breaks one day.Then it will have a very negative impact on the demand for industrial commodities. And we may get, at some stage, in some sectors of the economy, the risk of deflation. In other words, the demand for industrial commodities could, for a year or two, decline, and so, obviously, the price of copper, and of nickel, and also, to some extent, oil– although this would depend very much on political developments– would go down.In that environment, there will be more money-printing. If the S&P drops 20%, all the people that are now criticizing Mr. Bernanke for QE-II will go back to their old pattern, as they have done between 1980 and 2007, to encourage the Fed to print money, because they all benefited from rising asset prices. But as soon as the S&P drops 20%, the American policy-makers will all again be for further monetary policy measures and further fiscal measures.At that time, obviously, you could end up with a global economy that is very weak, but where prices go up for certain commodities, such as gold and silver.They don’t go down because of an oversupply situation, but they move because they are a safe currency.They become the proper unit of account. In all hyper-inflation economies, eventually people give up their own currencies as a unit of account.If you had gone to Zimbabwe during their hyper-inflation, or if you had gone to Germany during their hyper-inflation, or Mexico during their hyper-inflation, nobody in those countries calculated prices anymore in their domestic currency, it was all then becoming a dollar standard, or gold standard. That is why I think that people should have some of their money in gold and silver...."
in a recent interview with McAlvany
in a recent interview with McAlvany
Charles Nenner : Euro Should Be Split Into Two Currencies
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, talks about the outlook for the euro and oil prices. Nenner spoke March 8 with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)
Charles Nenner, Major War Coming End Of 2012
Massive conflict will prompt stock market collapse, predicts cycle strategist Charles Nenner
cycle forecaster Charles Nenner told Fox Business network yesterday that the Dow Jones was set to collapse to the 5,000 level on the back of a "major war" that will shake the globe at the end of 2012 ,Nenner, a former technical analyst for Goldman Sachs, is head of the Charles Nenner Research Center ,"I told my clients and pension funds and big firms and hedge funds to almost go out of the market, almost totally out of the market," Nenner said
cycle forecaster Charles Nenner told Fox Business network yesterday that the Dow Jones was set to collapse to the 5,000 level on the back of a "major war" that will shake the globe at the end of 2012 ,Nenner, a former technical analyst for Goldman Sachs, is head of the Charles Nenner Research Center ,"I told my clients and pension funds and big firms and hedge funds to almost go out of the market, almost totally out of the market," Nenner said
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Charles Nenner a major war to come in 2012 or 2013
Charles Nenner : Crude and Other Commodities Nearing a Cycle Top , Charles Nenner is cautious on commodities ...Charles Nenner just as Marc Faber also predicts a major war to come in 2012 or 2013. Whether the recent uprisings in the Middle East will spark this greater conflict, is unclear.Charles Nenner cycle work shows commodity prices peaking in the next few months. For those invested in gold and copper, he recommends taking profits.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Marc Faber recommends equities precious metals commodities and real estate in the country side - CNN 03_09_11
Marc Faber on CNN 03_09_11 :
Marc Faber : ...well all commodity prices have run up very substantially in the last say six months copper oil nickel and so forth ....and all are due for a correction , the question is what happens thereafter and quite frankly I do not think that the world can produce sufficient oil in a Goldilocks scenario where by the developed world Europe the US Japan recovers and the emerging world continues to grow in that case the demand will outstrip the production facilities and so prices will go up if everything looks good and if everything collapses in the world and we have turmoil in the middle east and so forth then obviously supplies will be curtailed very substantially , prices will go ballistic on the upside ..."
"well I thin I have been concerned for quite sometime that in the western world notably in the US we had excessive credit growth , and the excessive credit growth especially in the years 2000 to 2007 caused the financial crisis , and now excessive private credit growth have been replaced by excessive government credit growth , so ...which is even worse , the private sector is actually quite efficient it is the government that is usually inefficient , so I think that we are postponing the problems and one day the hour of truth will happen then the global economy and in particular the financial system with all the derivatives and leverage and so forth will collapse and then you will have a reboot it's like when your computer crashes you have to reboot it " as to how to play this market Marc Faber answers : "I am actually quite optimistic I drive motorcycles in Thailand "
"well I think if you look at different asset classes , cash which is usually the safest in the world and government bonds these two assets classes in my scenario of eventual complete collapse are very dangerous , so then you have asst classes like equities , they can go down of course and you have real estate can also go down , precious metals can also go down but at least you still have something , so I would suggest to investors : if you are ultra pessimistic about the eventual outcome before it'll happen you have massive money printing then you'll have war and in both instances you do not want to be in cash or government bonds you want to be in equities precious metals and commodities and in real estate in the country side "
The above transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog , so it is far from being fully accurate use at your own risk....
Marc Faber : ...well all commodity prices have run up very substantially in the last say six months copper oil nickel and so forth ....and all are due for a correction , the question is what happens thereafter and quite frankly I do not think that the world can produce sufficient oil in a Goldilocks scenario where by the developed world Europe the US Japan recovers and the emerging world continues to grow in that case the demand will outstrip the production facilities and so prices will go up if everything looks good and if everything collapses in the world and we have turmoil in the middle east and so forth then obviously supplies will be curtailed very substantially , prices will go ballistic on the upside ..."
"well I thin I have been concerned for quite sometime that in the western world notably in the US we had excessive credit growth , and the excessive credit growth especially in the years 2000 to 2007 caused the financial crisis , and now excessive private credit growth have been replaced by excessive government credit growth , so ...which is even worse , the private sector is actually quite efficient it is the government that is usually inefficient , so I think that we are postponing the problems and one day the hour of truth will happen then the global economy and in particular the financial system with all the derivatives and leverage and so forth will collapse and then you will have a reboot it's like when your computer crashes you have to reboot it " as to how to play this market Marc Faber answers : "I am actually quite optimistic I drive motorcycles in Thailand "
"well I think if you look at different asset classes , cash which is usually the safest in the world and government bonds these two assets classes in my scenario of eventual complete collapse are very dangerous , so then you have asst classes like equities , they can go down of course and you have real estate can also go down , precious metals can also go down but at least you still have something , so I would suggest to investors : if you are ultra pessimistic about the eventual outcome before it'll happen you have massive money printing then you'll have war and in both instances you do not want to be in cash or government bonds you want to be in equities precious metals and commodities and in real estate in the country side "
The above transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog , so it is far from being fully accurate use at your own risk....
Mark Mobius : Oil Will Extend Gains on Middle East Unrest
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, talks about the outlook for crude oil prices. Mobius also discusses the performance of emerging-market stocks, prospects for equities in Brazil and China, and his investment strategy. He speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television's "Fast Forward." (Source: Bloomberg)
Mark Mobius : investments in Brazil compared to Mexico
Mobius Says Mexico Drug War Doesn’t Deter His Investment
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, talks with Bloomberg's Jonathan J. Levin in Mexico City about the impact of Mexico’s drug violence on his investments in the country. Mobius also discusses Templeton's investments in Brazil compared with Mexico, his desire to see more initial public offerings by Mexican companies and the investment environment in Egypt, Dubai and eastern Europe. (Source: Bloomberg)
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, talks with Bloomberg's Jonathan J. Levin in Mexico City about the impact of Mexico’s drug violence on his investments in the country. Mobius also discusses Templeton's investments in Brazil compared with Mexico, his desire to see more initial public offerings by Mexican companies and the investment environment in Egypt, Dubai and eastern Europe. (Source: Bloomberg)
Marc Faber : Crude will rise before additional production comes into play
Rising crude oil prices has been a matter of grave concern in the past few days. Investment guru Marc Faber believes that crude may rise further before additional production comes into play. We need to find new oil fields and develop them and that is very costly. I would estimate the marginal cost of adding new oil at USD 80 per barrel, he said.
CNBC Tuesday 08 march 2011 : Marc Faber " what we had on the oil market in the last couple of years is essentially reduction of demand from the developed World from the United States western Europe Japan , and continuous growth in the emerging economies , so if you take a very optimistic view of the world namely a global economic recovery demand in the western world will pick up and demand in the emerging world will continue to rise very strongly, and so from a very optimistic point of view, you should be long oil.Of course we have had a huge run up and I think energy shares and oil is due for a correction but in an optimistic scenario you should be long Oil and also other industrial commodities , in a very pessimistic scenario you have to assume that unrest will shift also to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the gulf, and at that stage, maybe production may be curtailed, and in that case, obviously oil would go up ballistically... " Marc Faber told CNBC on Tuesday 08 march 2011 "Oil prices will spike up before additional production will come into play ....yes you can increase the production but to increase the reserves it is very difficult and very costly and the fact is simply that the world is burning more oil than it is adding in reserves every year So the level of overall proven reserves, or the existing oilfields - that production will go down,so you have to find new oil fields or develop new ones over time and that is very costly " Marc Faber added
CNBC Tuesday 08 march 2011 : Marc Faber " what we had on the oil market in the last couple of years is essentially reduction of demand from the developed World from the United States western Europe Japan , and continuous growth in the emerging economies , so if you take a very optimistic view of the world namely a global economic recovery demand in the western world will pick up and demand in the emerging world will continue to rise very strongly, and so from a very optimistic point of view, you should be long oil.Of course we have had a huge run up and I think energy shares and oil is due for a correction but in an optimistic scenario you should be long Oil and also other industrial commodities , in a very pessimistic scenario you have to assume that unrest will shift also to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the gulf, and at that stage, maybe production may be curtailed, and in that case, obviously oil would go up ballistically... " Marc Faber told CNBC on Tuesday 08 march 2011 "Oil prices will spike up before additional production will come into play ....yes you can increase the production but to increase the reserves it is very difficult and very costly and the fact is simply that the world is burning more oil than it is adding in reserves every year So the level of overall proven reserves, or the existing oilfields - that production will go down,so you have to find new oil fields or develop new ones over time and that is very costly " Marc Faber added
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Shadow Stats John Williams, on The Government Budget - Financial Sense Newshour Mar/08/2011
Financial Sense Newshour Mar/08/2011 : John Williams, Executive Editor of Shadow Government Statistics Discusses the Government Budget and the Unstoppable—Runaway Government Spending
Marc Faber top equity pick - Japan. - CNBC 07 March 2011
Mar. 7 2011 :
Japanese Markets Are Attractive says Dr Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report he also talks about his top equity pick - Japan.
Japanese Markets Are Attractive says Dr Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report he also talks about his top equity pick - Japan.
Marc Faber : you should be long Oil and energy shares
CNBC Tuesday 08 march 2011 : Marc Faber " what we had on the oil market in the last couple of years is essentially reduction of demand from the developed World from the United States western Europe Japan , and continuous growth in the emerging economies , so if you take a very optimistic view of the world namely a global economic recovery demand in the western world will pick up and demand in the emerging world will continue to rise very strongly, and so from a very optimistic point of view, you should be long oil.Of course we have had a huge run up and I think energy shares and oil is due for a correction but in an optimistic scenario you should be long Oil and also other industrial commodities , in a very pessimistic scenario you have to assume that unrest will shift also to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the gulf, and at that stage, maybe production may be curtailed, and in that case, obviously oil would go up ballistically... " Marc Faber told CNBC on Tuesday 08 march 2011 "Oil prices will spike up before additional production will come into play ....yes you can increase the production but to increase the reserves it is very difficult and very costly and the fact is simply that the world is burning more oil than it is adding in reserves every year So the level of overall proven reserves, or the existing oilfields - that production will go down,so you have to find new oil fields or develop new ones over time and that is very costly " Marc Faber added
Monday, March 7, 2011
Marc Faber : Gold and Silver are a safe currency
Marc Faber :.."... I would say , let’s take a very bearish scenario, assuming there is a collapse in the Chinese economy, which is not necessarily my prediction, but some people say there is a horrendous bubble. I agree, if we define a bubble as artificially low interest rates, and excessive credit growth, then we have a colossal bubble in China. But it may go on for another 2-3 years.But let’s say it breaks one day.Then it will have a very negative impact on the demand for industrial commodities. And we may get, at some stage, in some sectors of the economy, the risk of deflation. In other words, the demand for industrial commodities could, for a year or two, decline, and so, obviously, the price of copper, and of nickel, and also, to some extent, oil– although this would depend very much on political developments– would go down.In that environment, there will be more money-printing. If the S&P drops 20%, all the people that are now criticizing Mr. Bernanke for QE-II will go back to their old pattern,as they have done between 1980 and 2007, to encourage the Fed to print money, because they all benefited from rising asset prices. But as soon as the S&P drops 20%, the American policy-makers will all again be for further monetary policy measures and further fiscal measures.At that time, obviously, you could end up with a global economy that is very weak, but where prices go up for certain commodities, such as gold and silver. They don’t go down because of an oversupply situation, but they move because they are a safe currency.They become the proper unit of account. In all hyper-inflation economies, eventually people give up their own currencies as a unit of account.If you had gone to Zimbabwe during their hyper-inflation, or if you had gone to Germany during their hyper-inflation, or Mexico during their hyper-inflation, nobody in those countries calculated prices anymore in their domestic currency, it was all then becoming a dollar standard, or gold standard. That is why I think that people should have some of their money in gold and silver...."
in a recent interview with McAlvany on 23 Feb 2011
in a recent interview with McAlvany on 23 Feb 2011
Marc Faber : silver may outperform gold but I stick to gold because my safe deposit box is not large enough to put enough silver in it
Marc Faber : "....First of all, I think that gold and silver will move in the same direction, but as I tried to explain earlier on, when you print money, essentially, everything goes up, but at different times, and with different intensities. In a bull market, usually, toward the tail end of the bull market, silver tends to grossly outperform gold. So, yes, maybe it will outperform gold, but I stick to gold because my safe deposit box is not large enough to put enough silver in it, whereas, it is large enough to put enough gold in it.Different people have different takes on this, and my friend Eric Sprott, who knows the silver and gold markets extremely well, thinks that silver will go ballistic. Yes, maybe that is true, but I do not think that silver will go up alone, without gold also moving. The direction will be same. Concerning China, yes, I suppose that silver would have a larger industrial component than gold, but as I pointed out, if China collapses and there is a huge deflationary scare, I suppose that it is the real industrial commodities, like copper and nickel and so forth, would be more vulnerable than gold and silver..."
in a recent interview with McAlvany on 23 Feb 2011
in a recent interview with McAlvany on 23 Feb 2011
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Bill Gross Forecast
Mar. 3 2011 | Sharing his concerns over what will happen to bond yields and stock prices, with William Gross, Pimco co-CIO/founder.
Marc Faber : I Think We Are All Doomed
Marc Faber :" ....I think we are in a money-printing environment. If something happens in China, they will print even more than the U.S. prints. If something in happens in Europe, they will also print money.
They are going to print money everywhere, and with interest rates, essentially on short-term deposits, being zero, or below zero, inflation-adjusted, in other words, if inflation rates everywhere in the world are higher than the interest rates on short-term deposits, I think, for the investor, the question is really, “How do I invest my money for the long-term?”
...I do not think that [equity] returns will be fantastic, but if you print money it is very difficult to say what the returns will be, because it is not stocks that adjust on the downside, but it is the currency that adjusts on the downside. So in theory, it is possible that the Dow could double if you print money, or it could even go up 10 times, depending on how much money you print, and with Mr. Bernanke at the Fed, I think it is quite likely that a lot of money will be printed....."
extract from a recent interview
They are going to print money everywhere, and with interest rates, essentially on short-term deposits, being zero, or below zero, inflation-adjusted, in other words, if inflation rates everywhere in the world are higher than the interest rates on short-term deposits, I think, for the investor, the question is really, “How do I invest my money for the long-term?”
...I do not think that [equity] returns will be fantastic, but if you print money it is very difficult to say what the returns will be, because it is not stocks that adjust on the downside, but it is the currency that adjusts on the downside. So in theory, it is possible that the Dow could double if you print money, or it could even go up 10 times, depending on how much money you print, and with Mr. Bernanke at the Fed, I think it is quite likely that a lot of money will be printed....."
extract from a recent interview
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Marc Faber : bullish on Japan
"If I had to make a bet for the next ten years in terms of equity markets, I would seriously consider a very strong weighting here in Japan," Marc Faber said yesterday at the CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets' annual conference in Tokyo. "Once the debt market starts to go down, the yen will begin to weaken and that will lift equity prices. I would buy equities at the present time." "If I look at the next five to ten years, the interest payments on the government debt in Japan and the fiscal deficits will become very burdensome and that will necessitate monetization," Faber said. "That will bring about a huge shift of money out of cash and bonds into equities."
in bloomberg
in bloomberg
Marc Faber : America is nothing today relative to the rest of the world
Marc Faber Says U.S. Stocks Will Outperform Emerging Markets
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks about the outlook for global stock markets. Faber also discusses the U.S. economy and commodity markets. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)
Marc Faber said that a global systemic collapse would in relative terms benefit the United States he explains why . Marc Faber on the Phone from Tokyo speaking with bloomberg :"...well I think in a really negative environment where everything collapses the US is still a relatively self sustained economy that produce enough food and they have the resources even to produce enough energy if they wanted to , the problem is that interest lobbies prevent new sources of energy to be developed and so the US is still highly dependent on imported oil , besides from imported oil and I would say in life you need to eat everyday but you do not need to go to your office everyday you could do your job from your home and so essentially energy consumption could go down substantially in a crisis level , if I were really very negative about the whole world , I would have better be in the US than say Guatemala , Venezuela Saudi Arabia ..."
"The problem is this Mr Bernanke decided to print money and the federal reserve has done that for the last thirty years since 1980 and when you print money what the central banks cannot decide is where the money will flow to so , it flowed into NASDAQ in the 1997 to March 2000 and then in flowed into Real Estate and collapsed and in 2008 it flowed into commodities and now again it flowed into rising Oil and the surprise is food prices , the problem is this , as these prices go up it hurts the majority of the population the poor and the middle class , well to do ... Goldman Sachs or City Group or JP Morgan , your percentage that you spend on energy and food is very low so you don't care but for the majority of people it's big set-in....." I am suggesting that America will outperform it does not mean it will go up and I think we have begun a kind of correction period where all markets will go lower for the next three months and I think there is a possibility it hasn't happened yet that the US dollar will rally and that bonds somewhat will rally , but in general if you're very bearish about the emerging economies you shouldn't be bullish about the US and sustain the US would go down less than emerging economies , and I happen to think that the correction begun in emerging economies in November and will go lower and that the US now is peaking out and will go lower ...."
" let's put it this way , may be statistically the US is growing , but relative to the rest of the world , and I was born in 1946 at 65 years old in the 1950s America was above everything else , we talked about this that in America they invented this washing machines and appliances and whatever it was and today relative to the rest of the world America is nothing , and for the first time in history of capitalism the emerging world is more powerful than the western world that's is a huge change ...and it brings huge tensions in the world ..."
" I do not think everybody wants to come to America , I think a lot of Americans want to go overseas , and if Americans could freely opt to be citizens of other countries which they cannot , they will opt for that , and if Americans could have accounts overseas which is very difficult now for Americans to have they will opt for that ..."
The above transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog so it is far from being perfect opr accurate , use at your own risks ...
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks about the outlook for global stock markets. Faber also discusses the U.S. economy and commodity markets. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)
Marc Faber said that a global systemic collapse would in relative terms benefit the United States he explains why . Marc Faber on the Phone from Tokyo speaking with bloomberg :"...well I think in a really negative environment where everything collapses the US is still a relatively self sustained economy that produce enough food and they have the resources even to produce enough energy if they wanted to , the problem is that interest lobbies prevent new sources of energy to be developed and so the US is still highly dependent on imported oil , besides from imported oil and I would say in life you need to eat everyday but you do not need to go to your office everyday you could do your job from your home and so essentially energy consumption could go down substantially in a crisis level , if I were really very negative about the whole world , I would have better be in the US than say Guatemala , Venezuela Saudi Arabia ..."
"The problem is this Mr Bernanke decided to print money and the federal reserve has done that for the last thirty years since 1980 and when you print money what the central banks cannot decide is where the money will flow to so , it flowed into NASDAQ in the 1997 to March 2000 and then in flowed into Real Estate and collapsed and in 2008 it flowed into commodities and now again it flowed into rising Oil and the surprise is food prices , the problem is this , as these prices go up it hurts the majority of the population the poor and the middle class , well to do ... Goldman Sachs or City Group or JP Morgan , your percentage that you spend on energy and food is very low so you don't care but for the majority of people it's big set-in....." I am suggesting that America will outperform it does not mean it will go up and I think we have begun a kind of correction period where all markets will go lower for the next three months and I think there is a possibility it hasn't happened yet that the US dollar will rally and that bonds somewhat will rally , but in general if you're very bearish about the emerging economies you shouldn't be bullish about the US and sustain the US would go down less than emerging economies , and I happen to think that the correction begun in emerging economies in November and will go lower and that the US now is peaking out and will go lower ...."
" let's put it this way , may be statistically the US is growing , but relative to the rest of the world , and I was born in 1946 at 65 years old in the 1950s America was above everything else , we talked about this that in America they invented this washing machines and appliances and whatever it was and today relative to the rest of the world America is nothing , and for the first time in history of capitalism the emerging world is more powerful than the western world that's is a huge change ...and it brings huge tensions in the world ..."
" I do not think everybody wants to come to America , I think a lot of Americans want to go overseas , and if Americans could freely opt to be citizens of other countries which they cannot , they will opt for that , and if Americans could have accounts overseas which is very difficult now for Americans to have they will opt for that ..."
The above transcript was done manually by the owner of this blog so it is far from being perfect opr accurate , use at your own risks ...
Friday, March 4, 2011
Marc Faber explains the Insider Trading
Marc Faber : ...I would just like to say about the insider selling, this is also something that I follow and that concerns me. But having said that, and being on the boards of different companies, let me explain to you what happens. Let’s say I am on the board of a company and I get stock options, and I exercise the stock options and then to diversify, I may sell some of the shares I own in that company through my stock option plan, and then I may go and buy other stocks in the market, or make other investments.Because of the proliferation of option plans in the last twenty years or so, there is a natural tendency that when a CEO sells shares, it is reported, but when he invests with hedge fund management, or buys shares in other companies, it is not reported. I think there has been a change in the validity of this statistic. But I agree with you, at the present, the ratio is so huge between selling and buying, that it is a rather negative indicator. Then, when you combine that with other indicators that are also negative, a hugely over-bought market, for instance, I think some caution is in order...
in McAlavany interview 23 Feb 2011
in McAlavany interview 23 Feb 2011
Alan Greenspan on Inflation and Profits,
Mar. 4 2011 | Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman, says profitability doesn't mean a business is willing to invest in illiquid assets. He also shares thoughts on inflation.
Marc Faber on Bloomberg March 03 2011
Marc Faber said that a global systemic collapse would in relative terms benefit the United States he explains why . Marc Faber on the Phone from Tokyo speaking with bloomberg :"...well I think in a really negative environment where everything collapses the US is still a relatively self sustained economy that produce enough food and they have the resources even to produce enough energy if they wanted to , the problem is that interest lobbies prevent new sources of energy to be developed and so the US is still highly dependent on imported oil , besides from imported oil and I would say in life you need to eat everyday but you do not need to go to your office everyday you could do your job from your home and so essentially energy consumption could go down substantially in a crisis level , if I were really very negative about the whole world , I would have better be in the US than say Guatemala , Venezuela Saudi Arabia ..."
Marc Faber Says U.S. Stocks Will Outperform Emerging Markets
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks about the outlook for global stock markets. Faber also discusses the U.S. economy and commodity markets. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)
Marc Faber Says U.S. Stocks Will Outperform Emerging Markets
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks about the outlook for global stock markets. Faber also discusses the U.S. economy and commodity markets. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Marc Faber : The deficit, in my opinion, mathematically,cannot come down
Marc Faber :..... I have read Treasury reports in 2010 by Tim Geithner saying the U.S. government debt increased by more than2 trillion dollars during that period of time. The deficit, in my opinion, mathematically,cannot come down, because 80% of the budget is mandatory expenditures, in other words, you cannot cut them. Legally, they have to be met.Of the remaining 20%, you can cut a little bit, but not that much, because then services collapse. In my view, the fiscal deficit of the U.S. will stay around 1½ trillion dollars for as far as the eye can see, and maybe even go to 2, or 2½ trillion dollars, and then the interest expenditures on the debt go up. So actually, over time, in my view, unless taxes are increased significantly, and spending is cut significantly, not by a little bit here, a little bit there, the budget will never again be balanced, and that will then necessitate, in time, QE-III, QE-IV, and QE-V. Taxes cannot be increased dramatically, because if you increase them very substantially, we will go straight back into a recession.....
in McAlavany interview 23 Feb 2011
in McAlavany interview 23 Feb 2011
Marc Faber : I consider precious metals money
Marc Faber : "...An investor has the choice to invest in real estate, in equities, in bonds, in commodities, and I separate precious metals from commodities, from industrial and agricultural commodities, because I consider it money. Also we can buy art, and stamps,and other collectibles.I have a large subscriber base for my Gloom, Boom and Doom Report , and I asked each one of them to let me know if they have the impression that the cost of living increases,in other words, the percentage of how much they pay every year, more, for their families,is less than 5%. So far I have not received a single email, so I think inflation is around 5%. The return on deposits is essentially zero. And then people begin to worry, because paper money is no longer a store of value, and at the same time, it is a bad unit of accounts, because it is debased by the central bank.So people buy paintings, they buy real estate, they buy stocks, they buy, to some extent,bonds – last year, we had large inflows into bond funds– and they buy precious metals.The problem with all these easy monetary policies and artificially low interest rates, is that not everything goes up at the same time. In other words, we had a bubble in the NASDAQ in 1997 to March 2000, then the bubble burst. Then we had a real estate bubble 2000-2006. Then in September 2007 and July 2008, oil went from $78 to $147and the CRB went ballistic, so we had a commodities problem. In 2008 everything collapsed. Oil, in an unprecedented move, went, in July 2008, from $147 to a low of $32in December 2008. In other words, in six months, oil fell from $147 to $32 a barrel.These kinds of moves are brought about by the Federal Reserve monetary policies, and for the investor, there is no point to be overly dogmatic. From 1999 to 2007 and 2008,gold outperformed equities by a huge margin. Also, silver outperformed equities by a huge margin. In 2009, equities outperformed gold, and from here onward, it is going to be the same pattern. There will be suddenly other assets that appreciate, and some assets go down.I happen to think that some prices will go down, but they have become oversold on a year-term basis, because over the last three months, the whole world became overly enthusiastic with the inflation phase, so the thinking was, government bonds are bad, and equities are good. That may reverse for a little while, but I think long-term if you look at ten years, one of the worst investments will be long-term U.S. government bonds."
This was an extract of the long interview that Dr. Marc Faber did with McAlvany on 23 February 2011 , below is the full interview :
This was an extract of the long interview that Dr. Marc Faber did with McAlvany on 23 February 2011 , below is the full interview :
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Marc Faber : In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive.
Marc Faber : "....In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive. Is the price of wheat high, or is it low? Inflation-adjusted,it is extremely low. In nominal terms, it is relatively high. I believe that, in March 2009when the S&P was at 666, the market was actually much cheaper than is generally perceived, because of the money-printing, and I do not anticipate that we will see 666 on the S&P again, in nominal terms.In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps,2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009. Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in1980. In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could beat the same level.That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold. Can gold have a correction? Yes,there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction,but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold. In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the
household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia.Just consider, when I started to work in the 1970s, it was said there were two billionaires in the world. One was Rockefeller, and the other one was Mr. Ludwig. Then in 1980there were, I think, six or eight billionaires. Now you have thousands of billionaires.The paper money has become of lower value, and in that environment, it is conceivable that actually stocks do not go down a lot, in nominal terms, but they go down inflation-adjusted, and not inflation-adjusted by what the government is publishing, but in inflation-adjusted terms, as John Williams points out. He says inflation is running at 8% per annum. I have it slightly lower, depending also on the household, whether you have children, or no children, and where you live, but I would say between 5-10% in America is probably a realistic figure, and between 8-12% in countries like India, China, VietNam..."
This was an extract of the long interview that Dr. Marc Faber did with McAlvany on 23 February 2011 , below is the full interview :
household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia.Just consider, when I started to work in the 1970s, it was said there were two billionaires in the world. One was Rockefeller, and the other one was Mr. Ludwig. Then in 1980there were, I think, six or eight billionaires. Now you have thousands of billionaires.The paper money has become of lower value, and in that environment, it is conceivable that actually stocks do not go down a lot, in nominal terms, but they go down inflation-adjusted, and not inflation-adjusted by what the government is publishing, but in inflation-adjusted terms, as John Williams points out. He says inflation is running at 8% per annum. I have it slightly lower, depending also on the household, whether you have children, or no children, and where you live, but I would say between 5-10% in America is probably a realistic figure, and between 8-12% in countries like India, China, VietNam..."
This was an extract of the long interview that Dr. Marc Faber did with McAlvany on 23 February 2011 , below is the full interview :
Marc Faber thinks retails stocks are vulnerable right now
"Faber thinks retails stocks are vulnerable right now as rising food and oil prices reduce consumer spending. Wal-Mart is the classic example of difficult conditions for retails stocks, after the retailer reported another decrease in same store sales. If you want a real proxy for how the economy is doing, follow Wal-Mart’s stock price which has been flat for the past 2 years. Faber even advises people to short the Retail Index (RTH) with a tight stop-loss."
via www.wallstreetpit.com
via www.wallstreetpit.com
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Marc Faber : I think inflation is around 5%
Marc Faber : "...An investor has the choice to invest in real estate, in equities, in bonds, in commodities, and I separate precious metals from commodities, from industrial and agricultural commodities, because I consider it money. Also we can buy art, and stamps,and other collectibles.I have a large subscriber base for my Gloom, Boom and Doom Report , and I asked each one of them to let me know if they have the impression that the cost of living increases,in other words, the percentage of how much they pay every year, more, for their families,is less than 5%. So far I have not received a single email, so I think inflation is around 5%. The return on deposits is essentially zero. And then people begin to worry, because paper money is no longer a store of value, and at the same time, it is a bad unit of accounts, because it is debased by the central bank.So people buy paintings, they buy real estate, they buy stocks, they buy, to some extent,bonds – last year, we had large inflows into bond funds– and they buy precious metals.The problem with all these easy monetary policies and artificially low interest rates, is that not everything goes up at the same time. In other words, we had a bubble in the NASDAQ in 1997 to March 2000, then the bubble burst. Then we had a real estate bubble 2000-2006. Then in September 2007 and July 2008, oil went from $78 to $147and the CRB went ballistic, so we had a commodities problem. In 2008 everything collapsed. Oil, in an unprecedented move, went, in July 2008, from $147 to a low of $32in December 2008. In other words, in six months, oil fell from $147 to $32 a barrel.These kinds of moves are brought about by the Federal Reserve monetary policies, and for the investor, there is no point to be overly dogmatic. From 1999 to 2007 and 2008,gold outperformed equities by a huge margin. Also, silver outperformed equities by a huge margin. In 2009, equities outperformed gold, and from here onward, it is going to be the same pattern. There will be suddenly other assets that appreciate, and some assets go down.I happen to think that some prices will go down, but they have become oversold on a year-term basis, because over the last three months, the whole world became overly enthusiastic with the inflation phase, so the thinking was, government bonds are bad, and equities are good. That may reverse for a little while, but I think long-term if you look at ten years, one of the worst investments will be long-term U.S. government bonds."
This was an extract of the long interview that Dr. Marc Faber did with McAlvany on 23 February 2011 , below is the full interview :
This was an extract of the long interview that Dr. Marc Faber did with McAlvany on 23 February 2011 , below is the full interview :
Bill Fleckenstein : The Fed is Printing Money to Cover Bank Theft Leading to Food Inflation
The FED printing Money is causing food riots worldwide :
Bill Fleckenstein hedge fund manager and investor based in Seattle , president of Fleckenstein Capital, a money management firm . He also writes a daily Market Rap column for his Web site, Fleckensteincapital.com.
Bill Fleckenstein hedge fund manager and investor based in Seattle , president of Fleckenstein Capital, a money management firm . He also writes a daily Market Rap column for his Web site, Fleckensteincapital.com.
Elizabeth Warren : Assault on Middle Class (March 1, 2011)
Elizabeth Warren : “The middle class has been under assault now, really, for a generation.” The middle class got hit by a "one-two punch" of rising daily living expenses plus flat wages, Elizabeth Warren says
Marc Faber: Buy Oil, Energy U.S. stocks, like KB Home
Marc Faber: Buy Oil, Energy U.S. stocks, like KB Home
Marc Faber :..".well I think from here onward stocks will move very selectively I happen to like energy because if the economy surprises on the upside demand will pick up , in actual facts the demand in developed countries has picked up and in emerging economies it continues to go up " "I think in a, let's say Goldilocks outlook, you have to own some oil,If you're very bearish about the world, it's a nightmare scenario in the Middle East and I don't think that Saudi Arabia can affect production shortfalls of Libya and Saudi Arabia itself is very vulnerable and so I would say under any scenario, I would own some oil and energy shares , but they have rallied a lot and they are overdue for a correction "...etc...
Marc Faber :..".well I think from here onward stocks will move very selectively I happen to like energy because if the economy surprises on the upside demand will pick up , in actual facts the demand in developed countries has picked up and in emerging economies it continues to go up " "I think in a, let's say Goldilocks outlook, you have to own some oil,If you're very bearish about the world, it's a nightmare scenario in the Middle East and I don't think that Saudi Arabia can affect production shortfalls of Libya and Saudi Arabia itself is very vulnerable and so I would say under any scenario, I would own some oil and energy shares , but they have rallied a lot and they are overdue for a correction "...etc...
Marc Faber : I am advising people to accumulate gold
Marc Faber : "...In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive. Is the price of wheat high, or is it low? Inflation-adjusted, it is extremely low. In nominal terms, it is relatively high. I believe that, in March 2009 when the S&P was at 666, the market was actually much cheaper than is generally perceived, because of the money-printing, and I do not anticipate that we will see 666 on the S&P again, in nominal terms.
In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps, 2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009. Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in 1980. In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could be at the same level.
That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold. Can gold have a correction? Yes, there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction, but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold. In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia...."
in a recent interview with McAlvany
In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps, 2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009. Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in 1980. In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could be at the same level.
That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold. Can gold have a correction? Yes, there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction, but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold. In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia...."
in a recent interview with McAlvany
Monday, February 28, 2011
Marc Faber : Buy Oil , Energy Shares and Housing
Marc Faber :..".well I think from here onward stocks will move very selectively I happen to like energy because if the economy surprises on the upside demand will pick up , in actual facts the demand in developed countries has picked up and in emerging economies it continues to go up " " you have to own some oil and if you are very bearish about the world it's a nightmare scenario in the middle east and I don't that Saudi Arabia can offset the production shortfall of Libya and Saudi Arabia itself is very vulnerable and so I'd say under any scenario I would own some oil and energy shares , but they have rallied a lot and they are overdue for a correction "...etc....
Marc Faber : Buy Housing Now : CNBC Feb. 28 2011 | Marc Faber, editor of "The Bloom, Boom & Doom Report", explains why now is the time snap up real estate deals.
Marc Faber : Buy Housing Now : CNBC Feb. 28 2011 | Marc Faber, editor of "The Bloom, Boom & Doom Report", explains why now is the time snap up real estate deals.
Marc Faber : we are in the midst of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable
Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 2011.
Interview with Dr. Marc Faber : Measuring with the Proper Unit of Account...Gold
A Look At This Week's Show:
- Germans not happy with bailout of P.I.I.G.S.
- "The budget will never again be balanced"
- Even if commodities drop, gold should still rise
Marc Faber :" I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it."....
Interview with Dr. Marc Faber : Measuring with the Proper Unit of Account...Gold
A Look At This Week's Show:
- Germans not happy with bailout of P.I.I.G.S.
- "The budget will never again be balanced"
- Even if commodities drop, gold should still rise
Marc Faber :" I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it."....
Marc Faber, investment environment at this time, January 2011
Marc Faber, investment environment at this time, at the Russia Forum January 2011
Marc Faber : After a period of heavy money printing war follows
Marc Faber :"....we are living in a very complex world and when I look at it , we have different asset classes equities bonds governments bonds , we have real estate and commodities and so forth and so on and depending on your perspectives you may chose different asset classes , they are no such a thing as the best emerging market I do not focus so much on BRIC , I focus on the developed world of the west , America and Western Europe and in terms of another industrialized nation Japan and everything else that is emerging where 80 per cent of world population lives , I do not find that one country is the best compared to another one because when it comes to assets there is no asset that is always the best , but an asset can be the best at the right price , when the price is depressed and the best asset if the price is too high is not a good asset so I think that we have to look at it that way ...from an investment point of view we have a big debate in the world whether we have a deflationary collapse or an inflationary boom , and I'd like to introduce a thought where you would chose an asset that will perform well under either condition , in a deflationary bust you have a credit collapse so the one thing you do not want to own are US government bonds , because they won't be able to pay , and before they can pay they will print money like there is no tomorrow so the dollar would continuously depreciate which obviously would be good for assets that you can multiply such as commodities and precious metals , I separate precious metals from commodities ...but then I also think if they print money what then usually happens is that the standards of living of the middle class and the working class goes down because the cost of living increases faster than wage gains and so the population becomes very dissatisfied and eventually the government do stay in power to distract the attention of the people either goes to war or blames a minority for the mishaps ,and so forth but usually after a period of very heavy money printing war follows ...so If I invest today, I am considering the following: it is conceivable that because of ultra expansionary monetary policies in the world, and ultra expansionary fiscal policies in the US in particular, we have a temporary crack up boom. And the demand for oil in the western countries which has been declining since 2008, starts to pick up, and combined the oil demand in the world surprises on the upside, and pushes up oil prices, which would be beneficial for the oil producers, in particular Russia and Kazakhstan. Or you have what I think eventually happens: a complete systemic breakdown. I am the most bearish person long-term. If there is a complete breakdown, as I described with money printing and war, you want to be in commodities, specifically oil, because during war times commodity prices go ballistic. So whether you are very bullish or very bearish you should invest in oil....."
Marc Faber : After a period of heavy money printing war follows
Marc Faber :"....we are living in a very complex world and when I look at it , we have different asset classes equities bonds governments bonds , we have real estate and commodities and so forth and so on and depending on your perspectives you may chose different asset classes , they are no such a thing as the best emerging market I do not focus so much on BRIC , I focus on the developed world of the west , America and Western Europe and in terms of another industrialized nation Japan and everything else that is emerging where 80 per cent of world population lives , I do not find that one country is the best compared to another one because when it comes to assets there is no asset that is always the best , but an asset can be the best at the right price , when the price is depressed and the best asset if the price is too high is not a good asset so I think that we have to look at it that way ...from an investment point of view we have a big debate in the world whether we have a deflationary collapse or an inflationary boom , and I'd like to introduce a thought where you would chose an asset that will perform well under either condition , in a deflationary bust you have a credit collapse so the one thing you do not want to own are US government bonds , because they won't be able to pay , and before they can pay they will print money like there is no tomorrow so the dollar would continuously depreciate which obviously would be good for assets that you can multiply such as commodities and precious metals , I separate precious metals from commodities ...but then I also think if they print money what then usually happens is that the standards of living of the middle class and the working class goes down because the cost of living increases faster than wage gains and so the population becomes very dissatisfied and eventually the government do stay in power to distract the attention of the people either goes to war or blames a minority for the mishaps ,and so forth but usually after a period of very heavy money printing war follows ...so If I invest today, I am considering the following: it is conceivable that because of ultra expansionary monetary policies in the world, and ultra expansionary fiscal policies in the US in particular, we have a temporary crack up boom. And the demand for oil in the western countries which has been declining since 2008, starts to pick up, and combined the oil demand in the world surprises on the upside, and pushes up oil prices, which would be beneficial for the oil producers, in particular Russia and Kazakhstan. Or you have what I think eventually happens: a complete systemic breakdown. I am the most bearish person long-term. If there is a complete breakdown, as I described with money printing and war, you want to be in commodities, specifically oil, because during war times commodity prices go ballistic. So whether you are very bullish or very bearish you should invest in oil....."
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Marc Faber Spells it ALL OUT in 6 minutes !!!
I thought these 6 minutes of Marc Faber interview with Mac Alavany were VERY on point, .
a home for 50 ounces of silver! wow. A shotgun would be like 1/10th ounce? A new car 5 ounces of silver? A good suit for 1 ounce of silver!!
- Germans not happy with bailout of P.I.I.G.S.
- “The budget will never again be balanced”
- Even if commodities drop, gold should still rise
there is great opposition of Germany being part of the Eu amongst the German public says Marc Faber , the german public is probably not particularly happy about the bailouts to the PIIGS countries, there is opposition of Germany supporting countries like Greece that have basically abused the system ....Faber explains
a home for 50 ounces of silver! wow. A shotgun would be like 1/10th ounce? A new car 5 ounces of silver? A good suit for 1 ounce of silver!!
- Germans not happy with bailout of P.I.I.G.S.
- “The budget will never again be balanced”
- Even if commodities drop, gold should still rise
there is great opposition of Germany being part of the Eu amongst the German public says Marc Faber , the german public is probably not particularly happy about the bailouts to the PIIGS countries, there is opposition of Germany supporting countries like Greece that have basically abused the system ....Faber explains
Marc Faber : We Are in the End Game
Investment analyst Marc Faber joins radio host Alex Jones to discuss the state of the global economy and what he sees in the future for precious metals, inflation, and commodities.
Marc Faber : ..."...The Chinese if they could they would buy all American oil companies ...." " The US could produce much more 'rare earth metals' , but the exploration was neglected " " We Are in the End Game a crack-up boom""the government is the most unproductive factor in economic life " "This crackup boom will end very badly, but before it ends badly, we'll have money printing, very high inflation, and when everything fails, the US will go to war. They're already in war, but they'll increase it." "they are deluding the country they are lying"
Alex Jones talks with investment analyst and entrepreneur Marc Faber. He writes the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report and is the author several books, including Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery and Riding the Millennial Storm: Marc Faber's Path to Profit in the Financial Markets. Lindsey Williams joins Alex to talk about the rise in the price of oil in response to events in the Middle East and North Africa.
Marc Faber : ..."...The Chinese if they could they would buy all American oil companies ...." " The US could produce much more 'rare earth metals' , but the exploration was neglected " " We Are in the End Game a crack-up boom""the government is the most unproductive factor in economic life " "This crackup boom will end very badly, but before it ends badly, we'll have money printing, very high inflation, and when everything fails, the US will go to war. They're already in war, but they'll increase it." "they are deluding the country they are lying"
Alex Jones talks with investment analyst and entrepreneur Marc Faber. He writes the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report and is the author several books, including Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery and Riding the Millennial Storm: Marc Faber's Path to Profit in the Financial Markets. Lindsey Williams joins Alex to talk about the rise in the price of oil in response to events in the Middle East and North Africa.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Robert Prechter Still Worried About Deflation
Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, says deflation remains the primary problem, not inflation
Robert Prechter : ...."I think it is the major theme , what we've had is three major peaks in the market of the last dozen years and each one of them had an extreme liquidity period , we had the top in 2000 that's when the NASDAQ topped out it collapsed , it is going to come back to those highs , then we have 2006 , 2007 that's when the real estate topped in 2006 , the DOW topped in 2007 we had the commodities the index for example in 2008 , I do not think it will come back to new highs , now this third and what I believe will be the final mania run toward the ‘inflation is going to drown us all , has gotten new high in gold ..""When it's over and we head into the next decline and pessimism begins to build up again, people are going to stop focusing on...what they interpret as optimistic news, and start focusing on the fact real estate is making new lows and employment isn't responding."
Robert Prechter : ...."I think it is the major theme , what we've had is three major peaks in the market of the last dozen years and each one of them had an extreme liquidity period , we had the top in 2000 that's when the NASDAQ topped out it collapsed , it is going to come back to those highs , then we have 2006 , 2007 that's when the real estate topped in 2006 , the DOW topped in 2007 we had the commodities the index for example in 2008 , I do not think it will come back to new highs , now this third and what I believe will be the final mania run toward the ‘inflation is going to drown us all , has gotten new high in gold ..""When it's over and we head into the next decline and pessimism begins to build up again, people are going to stop focusing on...what they interpret as optimistic news, and start focusing on the fact real estate is making new lows and employment isn't responding."
Friday, February 25, 2011
Rick Santelli : Is the Dollar Dead?
Feb. 25 2011 |Discussing whether the dollar is dead as a safe-haven play, with Peter Sorrentino, Huntington Asset Advisors, and Mark Luschin, Janney Montgomery Scott.
Marc Faber : It is now now late to sell emerging markets
Marc Faber : "...I don’t think that emerging markets have bottomed out but it would be now late to sell emerging markets. In many cases, they are down 20% and many stocks, good companies, are down 30% from the recent high. The US stock market has now doubled from its low.
In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years. One was in 1934, coming off very deeply oversold condition in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return, both were negative.
I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model...."
via Indian TV TV-18
In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years. One was in 1934, coming off very deeply oversold condition in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return, both were negative.
I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model...."
via Indian TV TV-18
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Marc Faber : The Germans not happy with The PIIGS bailout
Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 2011
- Germans not happy with bailout of P.I.I.G.S.- “The budget will never again be balanced”
- Even if commodities drop, gold should still rise
there is great opposition of Germany being part of the Eu amongst the German public says Marc Faber , the german public is probably not particularly happy about the bailouts to the PIIGS countries, there is opposition of Germany supporting countries like Greece that have basically abused the system ....Faber explains
Marc Faber outlook for The Indian Market
Marc Faber :"....I was interviewed not long ago, where I said that downside is around 15,000. But many things can happen in the world. Investors have been very complacent about the events in the Middle East. I am not suggesting that it will necessarily spread to the Emirates to Qatar and to Saudi Arabia but there is always a possibility of some further bad news coming out of the Middle East, which would then, in my opinion, drive up oil prices. Obviously, rising energy prices would be a negative for the global economy — for the US economy and also for India....."
via www.moneycontrol.com
via www.moneycontrol.com
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Marc Faber : Buy Oil, Not US Stocks
Marc Faber :" On the upside, if you look at some other commodities like copper, then obviously oil prices could go up substantially even from these levels. I don’t think that oil is expensive compared to other commodities or compared to other goods prices in the world. But that would obviously depend on some political problems — some interruptions in oil supplies or a possibility of the global economy experiencing some kind of a crackup boom. A crackup boom is a boom that is driven by artificially low interest rates, easy monetary policies and debt growth.
The private sector debt growth has slowed down but it has turned up again. At the same time we have, of course, a huge expansion in government debt. That should not be forgotten.
These crackup booms don’t last. They are not sustainable but they can last six months to one year to 18 months and then a renewed setback occurs in the global economy."
via Indian TV TV-18
The private sector debt growth has slowed down but it has turned up again. At the same time we have, of course, a huge expansion in government debt. That should not be forgotten.
These crackup booms don’t last. They are not sustainable but they can last six months to one year to 18 months and then a renewed setback occurs in the global economy."
via Indian TV TV-18
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Marc Faber : Emerging Markets Outlook
Marc Faber :"...We had a massive outperformance of emerging economies’ stock markets between 2003 and a few months ago vis-Ã -vis the US. The investors who were by and large overweight emerging stock markets and underweight the US — they are still underweight the US. When the talk about inflation came up — I am not saying it is justified or not — it gave investors an excuse to sell down their holdings in emerging markets and move some money back into the US...."
via www.moneycontrol.com
via www.moneycontrol.com
Marc Faber: The Total Financial Collapse of America is Here! - Alex Jones Tv
Alex Jones talks with investment analyst and entrepreneur Marc Faber . He writes the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report and is the author several books, including Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery and Riding the Millennial Storm: Marc Faber's Path to Profit in the Financial Markets. Faber has been a regular contributor to several leading publications around the world in the past, among them Forbes, the Financial Times, Financial Intelligence, Asian Bond Portal, Die Welt and others.
Matt Taibbi : Why Isnt Wall Street in Jail?
Matt Taibbi on His New Article in Rolling Stone Magazine Titled, "Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail?"
DemocracyNow.org -
"Nobody goes to jail," writes Matt Taibbi in the new issue of Rolling Stone magazine. "This is the mantra of the financial-crisis era, one that saw virtually every major bank and financial company on Wall Street embroiled in obscene criminal scandals that impoverished millions and collectively destroyed hundreds of billions, in fact, trillions of dollars of the world's wealth." In an interview with Democracy Now!, Taibbi explains how the American people have been defrauded by Wall Street investors and how the financial crisis is connected to the situations in states such as Wisconsin and Ohio.
For the video/audio podcast, transcript, to sign up for the daily news digest, and for today's entire show, visit http://www.DemocracyNow.org.
DemocracyNow.org -
"Nobody goes to jail," writes Matt Taibbi in the new issue of Rolling Stone magazine. "This is the mantra of the financial-crisis era, one that saw virtually every major bank and financial company on Wall Street embroiled in obscene criminal scandals that impoverished millions and collectively destroyed hundreds of billions, in fact, trillions of dollars of the world's wealth." In an interview with Democracy Now!, Taibbi explains how the American people have been defrauded by Wall Street investors and how the financial crisis is connected to the situations in states such as Wisconsin and Ohio.
For the video/audio podcast, transcript, to sign up for the daily news digest, and for today's entire show, visit http://www.DemocracyNow.org.
Marc Faber : I dont think that emerging markets have bottomed out
Marc Faber : "....I don’t think that emerging markets have bottomed out but it would be now late to sell emerging markets. In many cases, they are down 20% and many stocks, good companies, are down 30% from the recent high. The US stock market has now doubled from its low.
In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years. One was in 1934, coming off very deeply oversold condition in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return, both were negative.
I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model."
via www.moneycontrol.com
In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years. One was in 1934, coming off very deeply oversold condition in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return, both were negative.
I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model."
via www.moneycontrol.com
Monday, February 21, 2011
Marc Faber on The Alex Jones Show 2011-02-21
Alex Jones talks with investment analyst and entrepreneur Marc Faber. He writes the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report and is the author several books, including Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery and Riding the Millennial Storm: Marc Faber's Path to Profit in the Financial Markets. Lindsey Williams joins Alex to talk about the rise in the price of oil in response to events in the Middle East and North Africa.
Marc Faber : the US market will eventually join the Emerging Markets on the downside
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, on Feb 21, 2011 , investment guru Marc Faber said oil prices could go up substantially from current levels
Marc Faber :'...Well My view is that the US market will eventually join the emerging markets on the downside because if you take a bearish view about the emerging economies, you cannot be too optimistic about the US because for many US corporations, 50% or more of their profits come from emerging economies. and My main concerns are these: first of all, I think that not all is well in China. That if the Chinese economy slows down more then what analysts expect, we could have a downdraft in commodity prices and all the warrants on China — whether it is Brazil, Australia or Indonesia would get hit quite hard.Secondly, I think that the geopolitical tensions in the world are increasing. In particular, if I were in India, I would be concerned about the events that are now occurring in Pakistan and Afghanistan. and This can also have an impact, obviously, on the valuation of equities. But I mean We shouldn’t forget that all the central banks in the world basically only know one thing and that is to print money. And when things will get bad, they will print more money. If they get worst than bad, they print more money.
Independently, whether that is the Bank of China or the Reserve Bank of India or in the US all the central banks will keep interest rates artificially low and they won’t increase them to a level where inflation adjusted they are positive....I am overly negative about assets and corporation stocks assets like commodities or real estate and so forth , I would be very concerned about the bonds market...."
Marc Faber :'...Well My view is that the US market will eventually join the emerging markets on the downside because if you take a bearish view about the emerging economies, you cannot be too optimistic about the US because for many US corporations, 50% or more of their profits come from emerging economies. and My main concerns are these: first of all, I think that not all is well in China. That if the Chinese economy slows down more then what analysts expect, we could have a downdraft in commodity prices and all the warrants on China — whether it is Brazil, Australia or Indonesia would get hit quite hard.Secondly, I think that the geopolitical tensions in the world are increasing. In particular, if I were in India, I would be concerned about the events that are now occurring in Pakistan and Afghanistan. and This can also have an impact, obviously, on the valuation of equities. But I mean We shouldn’t forget that all the central banks in the world basically only know one thing and that is to print money. And when things will get bad, they will print more money. If they get worst than bad, they print more money.
Independently, whether that is the Bank of China or the Reserve Bank of India or in the US all the central banks will keep interest rates artificially low and they won’t increase them to a level where inflation adjusted they are positive....I am overly negative about assets and corporation stocks assets like commodities or real estate and so forth , I would be very concerned about the bonds market...."
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Joseph Stiglitz : we spend too much on prisons and healthcare
Joseph Stiglitz : ".... in some states now we are spending as much on prisons as we do on universities , well that's good for GDP ..." "....it is not good to have so many people in prison and it is symptom of something dysfunctional , now we can have all discussions about what it is dysfunctional . but it is not positive ...another example is we spend more on healthcare than any other country as a percentage of GDP and our health outcomes are much lower than any other industrial countries and actually lower than many developing countries , well the extra money that we spend on healthcare shows up as a contribution to GDP if we got more efficient our GDP could go down ...
Glenn Beck The Coming Insurrection 2/11/ 2010
From 2010
The Coming Insurrection. What is Coming in Europe and How To Prevent it From Happening in America. Guests Tonight: Authors Niall Ferguson, Brian Doherty and Damon Vickers of Nine Points Capital Partners
The Coming Insurrection. What is Coming in Europe and How To Prevent it From Happening in America. Guests Tonight: Authors Niall Ferguson, Brian Doherty and Damon Vickers of Nine Points Capital Partners
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Marc Faber : because of the FED interest rates Money Flows to Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, markets where you can have stocks yielding 5% on the dividend
Marc Faber : “I think the difficulty is what to do with money when interest rates are essentially at zero on US dollar then obviously people look at their portfolios and they see stocks that have dividend yields. In Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, you can have stocks yielding 5% on the dividend. So, the money flows essentially into these stocks.”
Friday, February 18, 2011
Marc Faber : I was one of the first investors in South Korea and Taiwan in the late 1970s
DR. Marc Faber Editor and Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" on Leaderonomics Show
Marc Faber : .....basically in 82 to 87 we had a huge stock market boom and market became very over bought in 1987 and partly also significantly over valued , and so I predicted the crash and as it happened , within a week it happened then the journalists in Honk Kong will start calling me Doctor Doom because I started to predict that the Japanese stock market will be cut by fifty percent ...etc...and then in the 1990s late 1990s I was very bearish about the US technology stocks and felt that they would collapse and so forth , so many times I identified the markets that were overvalued ...same time I was one of the first investors in South Korea and Taiwan in the late 1970s and in Asia in the early 1980s when the markets became very cheap because we had a boom between 76 and 1980 and after 1980 we had a big decline in most Asian markets in mid 80 and then in the late 80s I started to travel to Latin America I felt that there was an under evaluation there due to high inflation so I started to buy Latin America , and then I was one of the founding partners of the first Russia fund in 1993 ...so to my credit I discovered many markets and also my book tomorrow's gold Asia's age of discovery it is not a bearish book , it is bearish about the United States bearish about the world but very bullish about Asia , it was published in 2001 I wrote it in 2001 It was very positive about commodity prices ....etc.....
Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" and author of the bestselling "Tomorrow's Gold". Faber was born in Zürich and schooled in Geneva, Switzerland, where he raced for the Swiss National Ski Team. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a Ph.D. degree in Economics magna cum laude.
Marc Faber : .....basically in 82 to 87 we had a huge stock market boom and market became very over bought in 1987 and partly also significantly over valued , and so I predicted the crash and as it happened , within a week it happened then the journalists in Honk Kong will start calling me Doctor Doom because I started to predict that the Japanese stock market will be cut by fifty percent ...etc...and then in the 1990s late 1990s I was very bearish about the US technology stocks and felt that they would collapse and so forth , so many times I identified the markets that were overvalued ...same time I was one of the first investors in South Korea and Taiwan in the late 1970s and in Asia in the early 1980s when the markets became very cheap because we had a boom between 76 and 1980 and after 1980 we had a big decline in most Asian markets in mid 80 and then in the late 80s I started to travel to Latin America I felt that there was an under evaluation there due to high inflation so I started to buy Latin America , and then I was one of the founding partners of the first Russia fund in 1993 ...so to my credit I discovered many markets and also my book tomorrow's gold Asia's age of discovery it is not a bearish book , it is bearish about the United States bearish about the world but very bullish about Asia , it was published in 2001 I wrote it in 2001 It was very positive about commodity prices ....etc.....
Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" and author of the bestselling "Tomorrow's Gold". Faber was born in Zürich and schooled in Geneva, Switzerland, where he raced for the Swiss National Ski Team. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a Ph.D. degree in Economics magna cum laude.
Catherine Austin Fitts : Financial Coup dEtat !! - Alex Jones Tv
Alex Jones talks with Catherine Austin Fitts, the president of Solari, Inc., the publisher of The Solari Report, managing member of Solari Investment Advisory Services, LLC. Fitts served as managing director and member of the board of directors of the Wall Street investment bank Dillon, Read & Co. Inc., as Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner at the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development in the first Bush Administration.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Edward Hugh : How Life In The Internet Changes The Practice Of Macroeconomics
Speaker: Edward Hugh
Chair: Professor Luis Garicano
This event was recorded on 14 February 2011 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building
A surprising feature of economic analysis of the current crisis has been the pivotal role played by a small number of bloggers, often positioned far from the academic mainstream. This event will feature one of the top bloggers on the Euro Crisis who will discuss the role the bloggers have played in our understanding of the current Euro Crisis, and in what ways having more data in our hard drive than the sum total of all previous economists changes our understanding of macroeconomics. Edward Hugh is an independent macro economist based in Barcelona. He studied at the LSE, where he obtained his BSc (econ). He then went to Manchester University where he was awarded an MSc in the philosophy and sociology of science. He subsequently persued doctoral studies there for a thesis which was never completed. He is a regular contributor to a number of weblogs, including A Fistful of Euros, Roubini Global Economics Monitor, Global Economy Matters and Demography Matters. He also has an active and widely followed Facebook community. For more information on Edward Hugh see the recent profile in the New York Times. Luis Garicano is a Professor of Economics and Strategy at the LSE's departments of Management and Economics.
Chair: Professor Luis Garicano
This event was recorded on 14 February 2011 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building
A surprising feature of economic analysis of the current crisis has been the pivotal role played by a small number of bloggers, often positioned far from the academic mainstream. This event will feature one of the top bloggers on the Euro Crisis who will discuss the role the bloggers have played in our understanding of the current Euro Crisis, and in what ways having more data in our hard drive than the sum total of all previous economists changes our understanding of macroeconomics. Edward Hugh is an independent macro economist based in Barcelona. He studied at the LSE, where he obtained his BSc (econ). He then went to Manchester University where he was awarded an MSc in the philosophy and sociology of science. He subsequently persued doctoral studies there for a thesis which was never completed. He is a regular contributor to a number of weblogs, including A Fistful of Euros, Roubini Global Economics Monitor, Global Economy Matters and Demography Matters. He also has an active and widely followed Facebook community. For more information on Edward Hugh see the recent profile in the New York Times. Luis Garicano is a Professor of Economics and Strategy at the LSE's departments of Management and Economics.
Marc Faber : Emerging Economies are very tied to the Chinese economy
Marc Faber :".......In general, the issue is that between 2008 and today, emerging economies have performed very well economically speaking and the rest of the world has not, and therefore, we had an outperformance in emerging economies' stock markets. Now, the question is emerging economies are very tied to the Chinese economy, and if the Chinese economy slows down or goes into a recession or there is a bubble that bursts in China, before the developed market economies recover strongly, what the implications will be on equities? That's why I feel more comfortable today to move back some money out of emerging economies into the developed markets. ...."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Ha-Joon CHANG - 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism
Speaker: Professor Ha-Joon Chang
We may like or dislike capitalism, but surely we all know how it works. Right? Wrong. Today, most arguments about capitalism are dominated by free-market ideology and unfounded assumptions that parade as 'facts'. This lecture in which Ha-Joon Chang will talk about his new book 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism| tells the story of capitalism as it is and shows how capitalism as we know it can be, and should be, made better.
Ha-Joon Chang (born in South Korea in 1963) is a leading heterodox economist specializing in development economics. He currently teaches political economy of development at the University of Cambridge. He is the author of numerous influential books, including Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (2002), who won the 2003 Gunnar Myrdal prize awarded by the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE).
One of the main disciples of Joseph Stiglitz, Ha-Joon Chang has worked as a consultant for the World Bank for the Asian Development Bank for the European Investment Bank, for various UN agencies and the NGO Oxfam . There is also a member of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC
He received the 2005 prize for the advancement Leontieff limits of economic thought (awarded in the past including Amartya Sen, John Kenneth Galbraith and Herman Daly), awarded by the Global Development and Environment Institute.
We may like or dislike capitalism, but surely we all know how it works. Right? Wrong. Today, most arguments about capitalism are dominated by free-market ideology and unfounded assumptions that parade as 'facts'. This lecture in which Ha-Joon Chang will talk about his new book 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism| tells the story of capitalism as it is and shows how capitalism as we know it can be, and should be, made better.
Ha-Joon Chang (born in South Korea in 1963) is a leading heterodox economist specializing in development economics. He currently teaches political economy of development at the University of Cambridge. He is the author of numerous influential books, including Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (2002), who won the 2003 Gunnar Myrdal prize awarded by the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE).
One of the main disciples of Joseph Stiglitz, Ha-Joon Chang has worked as a consultant for the World Bank for the Asian Development Bank for the European Investment Bank, for various UN agencies and the NGO Oxfam . There is also a member of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC
He received the 2005 prize for the advancement Leontieff limits of economic thought (awarded in the past including Amartya Sen, John Kenneth Galbraith and Herman Daly), awarded by the Global Development and Environment Institute.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Debating Inflation vs Deflation : Gary Shilling vs John Tamny
big debate over inflation vs. deflation featuring Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. and John Tamny, editor of RealClearMarkets.com
Gary Shilling, author of The Age of Deleveraging, remains bullish on the dollar and Treasuries. He says a "speculative bubble" is driving up commodity prices; a bubble he believes will pop when China's economy suffers a "hard landing,"
Gary Shilling, author of The Age of Deleveraging, remains bullish on the dollar and Treasuries. He says a "speculative bubble" is driving up commodity prices; a bubble he believes will pop when China's economy suffers a "hard landing,"
Inflation Creeping up
Featuring Bloomberg TV's Adam Johnson and Dominic Chu : Bloomberg Television's Under the Radar: Inflation, Trains & Play-Doh
Marc Faber : I still like the agricultural commodities
Marc Faber :.."...I still like the agricultural commodities, but they have had a very big move - in some cases 50% - over the last 3 months. So potentially, we will get kind of a setback here, a correction. But in general, I am still positive on agricultural commodities and I am still positive about precious metals whereby precious metals have become very popular lately and they have been very strong, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium and a correction is also overdue.
The whole world is now optimistic and positioned to take advantage of forever expansionary monetary policies by buying assets, precious metals, real estate, equities, and everybody believes that the central banks in the world will print and print and print and print. That is correct, they will do that, but they printed, printed and printed and we still saw a financial crisis in 2008. So I can print and print and print, and you can still have big corrections in the market. But I believe that if the S&P in the US drops 15-20% to around 900-950, the Fed would come out not with this quantitative easing No. 2, but with quantitative easing No. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 until the asset markets go up again. They are going to print and print and print. ..."
in ET Now
The whole world is now optimistic and positioned to take advantage of forever expansionary monetary policies by buying assets, precious metals, real estate, equities, and everybody believes that the central banks in the world will print and print and print and print. That is correct, they will do that, but they printed, printed and printed and we still saw a financial crisis in 2008. So I can print and print and print, and you can still have big corrections in the market. But I believe that if the S&P in the US drops 15-20% to around 900-950, the Fed would come out not with this quantitative easing No. 2, but with quantitative easing No. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 until the asset markets go up again. They are going to print and print and print. ..."
in ET Now
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Dr. Marc Faber Tomorrow's Gold
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
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